CDS DELIVERS LECTURE ON ‘DYNAMICS OF CONFLICT ' AT THE SLA OFFICER CAREER DEVELOPMENT CENTRE
Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) Admiral Ravindra C. Wijegunaratne delivered a lecture on the ‘Dynamics of Conflict; Analysis
within the Regional and Global Context ' at the Sri Lanka Army 's Career Development Centre (OCDC) at Buttala on 31st
May, 2018.
Following is the full text of the speech delivered.
DYNAMICS OF THE CONFLICTS: ANALYSIS WITHIN THE REGIONAL AND GLOBAL CONTEXT
Commander of the Sri Lanka Army,
Flag Rank Officers from the Army, and Navy,
Commandant, Officer Career Development Centre,
Academic professionals, Prof. Amal Jayawardana,
Participants from the Army and Navy,
Distinguished gathering,
Ladies and gentlemen,
Good morning to all of you.
Let me at the outset thank the Commandant, Officer Career Development Centre for extending me an invitation to be present here today as the Chief Guest as well as giving me an opportunity to deliver the keynote address on this year 's seminar theme ‘Dynamics of the Conflicts: Analysis within the Regional and Global Context '. My thanks to Army Commander whom I greatly admire from young age and his regiment Special Forces of SLA.
I would also like to congratulate the Commandant, Officer Career Development Centre and his staff for organizing this seminar for the sixth consecutive year. I think this centre deserves a very high recognition for the outstanding role played in grooming middle grade and senior officers of the Army.
Let me begin by saying that our future conflicts, regional or global, going to be maritime centric in the future. I will speak for next 30 minutes to prove that.
This is quite obvious as we have almost exhausted our resources on land and the only option now is the ocean. This will lead to some of the major conflicts in the future as we witness the tense situations that prevail in the maritime domain.
This is why I decided to briefly explain the present maritime context in our own maritime sphere as well as the strategic importance of the Indian Ocean.
Allow me to briefly explain few aspects pertaining to our maritime context.
We as a nation require aligning our strategic policies with a maritime heavy focus simply because our future lies in the maritime sphere.
Our connectivity to maritime domain is inseparable and that makes us expose to regional as well as global conflicts that have a maritime origin.
Further, we could see that some of the major ocean spaces are becoming hot spots for regional as well as global conflicts. The very nature of the maritime domain presents us with a number of challenges in dealing with present day maritime security threats and challenges.
As one cannot rule out the possibility of regional conflicts evolving into major global conflicts, it is important that we restrict the spillover of land conflicts to the maritime space as it will be quite a difficult task to contain the spread of maritime based conflicts across the globe.
Therefore, it is important for us to understand the changing maritime nature around the ocean space of Sri Lanka. For many reasons, year 2009 will be our bench mark. Prior to year 2009, we had a visible enemy and today we do not.
In many forums that I have discussed maritime security issues, I always mention that ‘not having a visible enemy out in our seas does not mean that our seas are safe and secure '. And I am sure you will agree with me that it is equally applicable to the Army and Air Force.
When the situation demands to face an enemy that is not visible, not identified and quite often disguised, the challenge is mammoth. Even though we do not have a visible enemy out at sea to challenge our national security, we do have a quite a number of threats and challenges that we need to pay serious attention, such as drug trafficking, human smuggling, IUU fishing, marine pollution, oil/chemical spills, natural disasters.
Ladies and gentlemen,
Let us now take a brief look at the strategic importance and the Indian Ocean dynamics.
The connectivity between the Indian Ocean and other major oceans are largely attributed to the ever increasing global supplies, well knitted international maritime trade web and the much important wealth of natural resources.
As we all know, ocean resources are limited in scope and this very fact then leads to competition among nations. Issues related to policies, governance, legal aspects, and disputes over maritime borders and, tensions in the region are some of the major challenges that need attention.
What might not be visible from the surface is the complex strategic environment that lies beneath the ocean affairs.
The complex nature that prevails in the maritime domain is mainly attributed to the intersecting and overlapping interests among the key regional as well as global players. While progress is being marked with statistics and numbers that speak high of many aspects, we need to pay our attention to threats, and risks that accompany these rewards.
The trends that have taken place centering the Indian Ocean have begun to prove what maritime strategists like Alfred Mahan and many others had stated many years back. However, the importance of the Indian Ocean cannot be assessed in isolation.
This ocean is interlinked with the Atlantic and the Pacific and hence there are many key stake holders who are very interested in the security of the Indian Ocean. Many major powers outside the Asian continent therefore have become key stake holders of Indian Ocean security.
Due to the high density of maritime trade and the resultant need of secure sea lane, the Indian Ocean has become a important lifeline of global geopolitics. Within a very short time span in history, the Indian Ocean has facilitated the transformation of Indo-Asia-Pacific theatre in to one of the fastest growing region in the world. This trend has resulted in this region becoming strategically very critical to global security and stability.
The rising economics of Asia and East Asia have caused a rise in demand of energy supplies. Increased consumption patterns have given rise to more products been traded across oceans. This affects the vital Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) in the Indian Ocean, especially those along the strategic choke points.
Any disruption to the traffic flow through the choke points can have disastrous consequences.
Ladies and gentlemen,
I have flashed few facts pertaining to the Indian Ocean for your information.
a. About 30% of world trade is handled in the ports of the Indian Ocean.
b. Half of the world 's container traffic passes through the Indian Ocean.
c. Continental shelves cover about 4.2% of the total area of the Indian Ocean and they are very rich in minerals including Tin, Gold, Uranium, Cobalt, Nickel, Aluminum and Cadmium although these resources have been largely not exploited, so far.
d. 40 out of 54 types of raw materials used by U.S. industries are supplied by the Indian Ocean.
e. Several of the world 's top container ports, including Port Kelang in Malaysia, Singapore and Colombo port are located in the Indian Ocean.
f. Indian Ocean possesses some of the world 's largest fishing grounds, providing approximately 15% of the total world 's fish catch.
g. Fifty five percent (55%) of known offshore world oil reserves are in the Indian Ocean.
h. Forty percent (40%) of the world 's offshore natural gas reserves are in the Indian Ocean littoral states.
The economic progress in the Asian region has been one of the factors that have attracted global powers especially to the Indian Ocean.
The HSBC World in 2050 report forecasts, 19 countries from Asia becoming the largest economies by 2050. By 2030, Asia is expected to surpass the West in terms of Global power based on population, GDP, technology and military spending.
This clearly shows the enormous potential that lies with us and it also reminds us that along with the economic benefits comes a wide range of security threats and challenges.
As I mentioned at the beginning, we observe an important trend in the present day geopolitical affairs tilting towards the Asian maritime sphere making it one of the most discussed hot spots in the global conflict indexes.
With clear indications of future conflicts going to be maritime centric, let us take a look at some interesting facts of some of the leading power players.
The United States has the largest economy in the world at $20.4 trillion, according to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the US economy increased from around $19.4 trillion last year.
China follows, with $14 trillion, which is an increase of more than $2 trillion in comparison to 2017. Japan is in third place with an economy of $5.1 trillion, up from $4.87 trillion a year previously.
The sheer scale of the United States ' economy puts others into perspective. It is larger than the combined economies of numbers four to 10 on the list. Overall, the global economy is worth an estimated $79.98 trillion, meaning the US accounts for more than one-quarter of the world total.
China 's economy will also eclipse the US economy by 2050, according to a report by “Pricewaterhouse Coopersâ€, which also predicts India will overtake the US. China, the report says, will have an economy of nearly $58.5 trillion, while India 's will be around $44.1 trillion and America 's will total $34.1 trillion.
Interestingly, Japan ($6.7 trn), Germany ($6.1 trn), the United Kingdom ($5.3 trn) and France ($4.7 trn) are expected to fall to eighth, ninth, 10th and 12th in the list, respectively.
These countries will be replaced by Indonesia ($10.5 trn), Brazil ($7.5 trn), Russia ($7.1 trn), and Mexico ($6.8 trn), which climb to fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh, respectively.
If we look at the military might, we could see that the U.S. is leading followed by Russia, China, India, France, and the UK. The U.S. military strength include 2,363,675 military personnel, 13,362 aircraft, 5,884 combat tanks, 415 naval assets which include 20 aircraft carriers, with a defence budget of 647 billion USD. If we compare the defence budget of the U.S. and next seven countries, the U.S. still leads.
In addition to the above, U.S. is the only country which look in to their military affairs by dividing the world into six military commands.
Ladies and gentlemen,
We all know that the Centre of Gravity of the Global Politics has shifted from West to Asia Pacific. Further, we are also witnessing the rise of India and China, gradual assertion of Japan of its military profile and a significant shift in the U.S. global posture towards the Indo-Asia-Pacific Theater. Significantly, we also see how Russia shifts towards Asia by way of expanding their pacific fleet into one of the biggest fleets. This is necessarily with the intention of addressing developments in Asia.
Recent developments in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region clearly show rising levels of tensions both on land as well as in the wider maritime sphere. The rise of China, Japan and India in the Indo-Asia-Pacific is yet another area of concern.
Ladies and gentlemen,
Every four years, a group of U.S. intelligence analysts tries to predict the future. In 2017 those analysts forecast a massive shift in international affairs over the next five years or so. Some important aspects of that report are flashed on the screen.
-“For better and worse, the emerging global landscape is drawing to a close an era of American dominance following the Cold War,†the study argues.
-“Major powers are struggling to cooperate on issues of global consequence and acting aggressively in their respective parts of the worldâ€.
-“By early 2020s—China, Russia, and Iran come to believe that the United States is retreating from the world because of its divisive domestic politics and messy government financesâ€.
-“The threat of terrorism will grow: “Although the location of religiously driven terrorism will fluctuate, the rise of violent religious nationalism and the schism between Shia and Sunni are likely to worsen in the short term and may not decline by 2035,â€.
-“Nationalism, which often stokes tensions between countries and frames “international relations in existential terms,†may swell in response to the largest migrant flows in decades and the disruptions caused by globalizationâ€.
Let us now take a look at the South Asian Security Context.
South Asia, which consists of seven states of different sizes and capabilities, is characterized by high levels of insecurity at the interstate, intra-state and human level insecurity. This is evident in both traditional and non-traditional security problems, and we also observe the threatening transnational terrorism being fuelled by spread of extremist violent ideologies.
In the above context, it is important that we seek for an all inclusive security architecture in finding answers to security threats and challenges in the South Asian region. Another contemporary concern in South Asia is the prevailing nuclear complexity. South Asia, a volatile and unstable region, has been witnessing an escalation in military and nuclear rivalry.
This highlights the importance of leaving aside some of the issues that hinders the progress of this region such as mistrust and lack of confidence among some of the key power players in the region.
Further, the Indian Ocean Region has been gaining increasing prominence as a potential arena for geopolitical rivalry making littoral nations in the Indian Ocean Region important stake holders.
Ladies and gentlemen,
Now let me briefly explain Sri Lanka 's role in the Indian Ocean.
The strategic location of Sri Lanka as well as the Indian Ocean was amply highlighted in a letter that was written by Grand Admiral Raeder, the German Commander-in-Chief in a report to Hitler dated 13 February 1942.
The statement is as follows:
“Once Japanese battleships, aircraft-carriers and submarines and the Japanese Air Force are based on Ceylon, Britain will be forced to resort to heavily escorted convoys if she desires to maintain communications with India and the Near East. Plans to strike westwards into the Indian Ocean and seize Ceylon had been prepared by the staff of the Japanese Combined Fleetâ€.
During the second World War, the British Prime Minister made the following statement on the ‘Battle of Ceylon ' during a conversation at the British Embassy in Washington D.C.
“The most dangerous moment of the War, and the one which caused me the greatest alarm, was when the Japanese Fleet was heading for Ceylon and the naval base there. The capture of Ceylon, the consequent control of the Indian Ocean, and the possibility at the same time of a German conquest of Egypt would have closed the ring and the future would have been blackâ€.
The above statements clearly highlight the strategic importance of Sri Lanka despite her size in the Indian Ocean.
One of the busiest maritime trade and energy lanes are located about five to ten nautical miles south of Sri Lanka.
It is estimated that over 60,000 ships continue to sail to east and west annually carrying two thirds of oil and half of all container shipments. India is our most promising market.
Nearly, 75 percent of Colombo port volumes are transshipments from India and the Indian middle class market alone is set to expand to 10 times the island 's entire population. The easy access that we have to regional markets is one of the major strengths that we have.
Port of Colombo recorded a 16.2% growth for the first quarter 2018 over same quarter last year in container handling. Among container Ports worldwide, Colombo Growth rate is second only to the Port of Singapore which has recorded 16.5% growth over 2017.
It is also a very significant achievement when compared against the Port of Colombo\'s 2017 figures with 8.3% growth of 2017.
The Colombo Port received 1.7 million twenty foot equivalent units (TEUs) in the first quarter of 2018, which is a 16.2 percent growth from a year earlier. Colombo Port\'s transshipment volumes grew 20.9 percent to 1.32 million TEUs, with March volumes up 19.4 percent to 477,043 TEUs. With this growth, the Port of Colombo has leaped ahead of many other Asian Ports, Major European Ports and Dubai as well.
According to Alphaliner global port rankings the top container ports such as Singapore marked 16.5% ranking number one, the Port of Colombo marked 16.2% at number two, Port of Xiamen - (China) 11.6% at number three, Antwerp (Belgium),10.7% at number four and Ningbo - Zhoushan (China),10.4% ranked at number five. The Colombo Port expects to handle 7.0 million containers in 2018, up 12.9 percent from the 6.2 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) handled in 2017 with joint marketing by the Jaya Container Terminal of the SLPA, South Asia Gateway Terminal and Colombo International Container Terminal (CICT) of China\'s CM Ports.
Recently the three terminal operators signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to operate collectively to promote the Port of Colombo. Through the new agreement, terminals will also be able to promote the Port of Colombo collectively and collaboratively in the arena of international maritime business.
Colombo Port was ranked the 13th best connected port in the world in 2017, moving up five places from 18, a year earlier, according to an index compiled by Drewry, a UK based shipping and maritime consultancy. Under South Asia, Colombo Port was ranked the best connected.
We have all the ingredients that required becoming a maritime hub in the Indian Ocean. It is a matter of having the right mix of strategies and an effective implementation plan.
Due to this geographical locations, Sri Lanka has already become an important partner for China, US and India in securing the SLOC and prospering the influence in the Indian Ocean.
We had 57, 66 and 15 (up to May 2018) foreign naval ship visits to Sri Lanka in 2016, 2017 and 2018 respectively.
These statistics clearly show the importance placed by regional as well as global navies on Sri Lanka. Many regional as well as global power players have understood the strategic importance of partnering with Sri Lanka in addressing Indian Ocean affairs.
Our neutrality in the region has been praised by many and that is considered as one of the biggest strengths we have. Many countries entering into the Indian Ocean increasingly seek to engage with Sri Lanka through strategic maritime initiatives. Taking this situation into advantage, we have to ensure that we reap maximum benefits in order to position Sri Lanka as a vibrant maritime hub in the Indian Ocean Region.
Ladies and gentlemen,
The future of the region and all its members, big or small, powerful or not will depend on how best each one responds and adheres to the accepted norms and standards. Global as well as regional stability is heavily dependent on how the highly complex and interwoven threats and challenges are effectively addressed by way of an all inclusive approach.
Therefore, establishing a regional framework that binds and guides the states through a well articulated rule based approach will be critical to furthering prosperity, peace, and stability in the broader Indo-Asia-Pacific region.
How we cooperate with our partners and the success of such partnerships will remain as the key in making not only the Indo-Asia-Pacific region, but rest of the oceans a safer and secure place.
Today, it does not matter how powerful or advanced you are. If you fail to cooperate and coordinate with the smallest and the least developed, you will not be able to seek a single solution to regional and global conflicts.
Allow me to conclude my remarks quoting Albert Einstein,
I quote;
“Nothing truly valuable can be achieved except by the unselfish cooperation of many individualsâ€,
I unquote.
Thank You!
